In the last week before the Spring Festival, gold reversed its adjustment trend from the end of 2024 and started the new year with a continuous uptrend, showing a potential breakthrough to new highs. On January 25th, the international gold price closed at 2,790, gold prices will reach new highs. Many institutions and experts have provided analyses and forecasts for the subsequent market trends. Let’s take a look at what has driven this wave of performance.
Gold Retail Prices Hit New Highs, and Mobile Phone Sticker Gold Becomes Popular in China
According to observations by TiMedia APP, in the gold retail consumer market, the quoted prices for pure gold jewelry from brands such as Chow Tai Fook have surpassed RMB 830 per gram, also setting a new high. As of January 26, 2025, the retail prices of gold at various brand stores are approaching RMB 840 per gram.
Since the second half of 2024, with the surge in gold prices, domestic gold sales have experienced a chilly period, with sales declining and the financial reports of listed gold companies showing concerning performance. Even major gold stores have started to downsize. According to the World Gold Council, sales of Chinese gold brands have plummeted by about 40%. Nationwide, the store closure rate has soared, reaching over 15%. On January 22nd, Chow Tai Fook released its unaudited key operating data for the three months ending December 31, 2024. The data showed that the group’s retail value decreased by 14.2% year-on-year, with retail values in Hong Kong, Macau, and the Chinese mainland markets declining by 13% and 20.4%, respectively. In terms of same-store sales, Hong Kong and Macau markets saw a decline of 21.3%, while same-store sales in mainland China’s directly-operated and franchise stores fell by 16.1% and 12.3%, respectively. Additionally, public data revealed that from the second to the third quarters, same-store sales in Chow Tai Fook’s mainland China directly-operated and franchise stores decreased by 24.3% and 20.3% year-on-year, respectively. From January to October, only 85 new stores were opened, while 230 stores were closed, resulting in a net closure of 145 stores. Estimating based on 100,000 stores nationwide, the number of closures reached 15,000.
However, Chow Tai Fook predicts that the year-on-year performance of same-store sales in the fourth quarter of the 2025 fiscal year (from January to March 2025) will continue to improve compared to the beginning of the 2025 fiscal year. After visiting several Shanghai brand gold stores, TiMedia APP found that during the seasonal gold-buying rush for the Spring Festival, gold jewelry with snake-themed elements is particularly popular among consumers. A Chow Tai Fook staff member told TiMedia APP that following the traditional “widow’s year” of the Dragon Year, more young people are planning to get married in 2025. Since January, many couples have come to purchase and customize wedding gold jewelry. Furthermore, there are also many consumers buying gold jewelry for celebrating babies’ one-month or first birthday ceremonies, as well as retail investors purchasing gold jewelry to give to elders or as gifts for visiting relatives and friends, and for self-indulgence.
Meanwhile, after the dismal performance in 2024, to embrace transformation, many reputable gold stores have launched trade-in promotions or various discount activities. For example, Cai Bai Jewelry has set up a dedicated queue for its lucky bead counter, and the “trade-in” window has seen over a hundred customers by noon. Lao Pu Gold’s Shanghai Yu Garden store has launched a “spend a thousand and get a hundred off” promotion, with its lunar new year gold bar products being highly sought after. The store is bustling with a festive atmosphere. This suggests that Chow Tai Fook’s prediction is likely to materialize.
However, the manager of a Chow Sang Sang store told TiMedia APP that a new trendy gold item this year is gold phone case stickers, with a gold content ranging from 0.01 to 0.2 grams, mainly made of 999 gold, although some other stores use Shuibei gold. Priced generally below RMB 100, they are very popular among young people. The store has introduced several designs, including lucky cats, snake-themed motifs, the Chinese character for “prosperity,” and some collaborative themes. Currently, there is almost a shortage of supply. This product is more about volume. Compared to traditional gold jewelry, the store is also willing to display these items in the most prominent location upon entry.
Furthermore, she mentioned that live streaming, either through official accounts or in collaboration with live streaming bloggers, has become a new way to buy gold. However, the products sold are mainly stickers, gold rings, and small pendants. Large orders are still primarily made through offline stores. Nevertheless, the best-selling item is the phone sticker. Due to its low price, many customers buy multiple pieces at once. From the company’s perspective, this product has a much larger profit margin per gram and production cost than gold rings and pendants, so the company is also keen on creating these new gadgets for young customers. According to Taobao data, over the past year, at least 200,000 young people have purchased gold phone stickers, with young women aged 25-30 being the main consumers. The manager also said that most customers who come to buy gold stickers are young women, often shopping with friends, and many of them make purchases together after being recommended by sales staff.
