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Expected ‘micro spring’ in the real estate market in 2025: Shenzhen leads the way, multiple policies promote stable recovery

2025-02-05

According to agency data, the overall transaction volume in the national real estate market remained relatively stable during the Spring Festival holiday this year, with significant regional differentiation. In addition to releasing transaction data for the Spring Festival, some regions also released January transaction figures, with some areas, represented by Shenzhen, achieving a “good start.”

Continuing the Recovery Momentum

Agency data shows that in January 2025, the transaction area of new commodity residential properties in 20 key cities nationwide increased by 33% year-on-year, with first-tier cities playing a significant role in driving transactions and maintaining a good level of transaction volume.

On February 4th, the “Shenzhen Release” WeChat official account posted that in January 2025, nearly 10,000 new commodity residential properties and second-hand residential properties were transacted in Shenzhen, representing a 60% year-on-year increase. The market saw “sold-out” projects once again, and the premium rate for the first residential land transaction exceeded 70%. January is traditionally a slow season for the real estate market, but transactions in Shenzhen remained active. A total of 5,090 new commodity residential properties were sold online, up 97.3% year-on-year. The online transaction volume for second-hand residential properties was 4,554 units, up 31.5% year-on-year, continuing the market recovery trend since October last year.

Industry insiders noted that in 2024, the sales area of new commodity residential properties in Shenzhen reached 8.387 million square meters, up 7.0% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend of stabilizing and recovering in the market. Driven by a sustained economic upturn, continuous policy support, and improving market expectations, the stabilization and recovery trend in Shenzhen’s real estate market in 2025 is expected to be further consolidated.

The relevant person in charge of the Shenzhen Real Estate and Urban Construction Development Research Center stated that recently released economic data shows that Shenzhen’s GDP in 2024 reached 3.68 trillion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year, with a growth rate leading among first-tier cities. Meanwhile, Shenzhen’s permanent resident population has grown steadily, and its structure has continued to optimize, which will effectively support housing consumption. Currently, Shenzhen is accelerating the establishment of a new mechanism linking the elements of “people, housing, land, and money,” focusing on building “good houses” that meet the needs of rigid and improved housing demand, reconstructing the balance between real estate supply and demand, improving the “market + security” systems, and accelerating the construction of a new model for real estate development. It is believed that the stabilization and recovery trend in Shenzhen’s real estate market will be further consolidated in 2025.

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