On February 11th, the main apple futures contract 2505 closed at 7,036 yuan/ton, up 0.17%, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains. Analysts generally believe that the recent rise in apple futures prices is a corrective rebound.

Li Jingyi, an agricultural analyst at Guoxin Futures, said that after the Spring Festival holiday, apple futures prices fell sharply, and the recent increase is a corrective rebound. Overall, apple futures are currently in a low volatility pattern after a smooth decline.

Hou Zhifang, an apple researcher at Fangzheng Mid-term Futures, believes that there are two main reasons for the rise in apple futures prices: First, the revision of overall valuation expectations. Previously, market sentiment focused on the impact of insufficient downstream confidence, leading to low valuation expectations for apple futures. However, the fact that apple inventories are relatively low compared to the same period last year still provides support, and there has been some revision in valuation expectations recently. Second, the change in overall sentiment. After the Spring Festival, market sentiment has shifted to optimism.

Liu Lin and Yan Junyong from the Investment Advisory Department of Chang’an Futures said that during the Spring Festival holiday, although sales of first-grade apples were relatively slow, data from various cold storage facilities and private cold storages indicate that apple inventories are already at historically low levels for the same period.

“During the Spring Festival holiday, apple sales were stable, and market expectations changed little,” Hou Zhifang said. According to Zhuochuang Information, as of February 6, 2025, national apple cold storage inventories stood at 6.19 million tons, a decrease of 0.4301 million tons from before the holiday and 0.8159 million tons year-on-year. Among them, cold storage inventories in Shandong Province were 2.5285 million tons, a decrease of 0.1327 million tons from before the holiday and 0.1997 million tons year-on-year; cold storage inventories in Shaanxi Province were 1.6941 million tons, a decrease of 0.1318 million tons from before the holiday and 0.5301 million tons year-on-year.