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What could the next government look like?

2025-02-27

Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party leader Friedrich Merz announces victory in the federal election, in Berlin, Germany, February 24, 2025. /CFP

Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party leader Friedrich Merz announces victory in the federal election, in Berlin, Germany, February 24, 2025. /CFP

Friedrich Merz is on track to be the next chancellor of Germany after the conservative alliance he heads emerged as the largest grouping in the next Bundestag.

The 69-year-old must now negotiate a coalition and has indicated he aims to have a new government in place by mid-April.

The next intrigue lies in who could govern in partnership with the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) alliance, which took about 28.5 percent of the vote in Sunday’s federal election, ahead of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) on around 20.5 percent, and what their agenda might include.

Although Merz’s alliance won a clear victory in a high-turnout election—around 84 percent—the result was the grouping’s second worst in about eight decades, and forming a coalition will not be easy.

The major gains were made by the AfD, which jumped about 10 points from the previous election four years ago, and the left-wing Linke, which won over 8 percent, both boosted by strong support from young people.

The longstanding “firewall” against the far-right among the mainstream parties means a coalition featuring the AfD is out, and Linke is an incompatible partner for the CDU/CSU.

Outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) fell to around 16.5 percent, but are the most viable, though tricky, “grand coalition” partner for Merz.

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