Editor’s note: Nikola Mikovic, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a freelance journalist in Serbia, covering mostly Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian foreign policy issues. The article reflects the author’s opinions, and not necessarily those of CGTN.

Almost 2,500 years ago, the ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu wrote in his book The Art of War that “there is no instance of a nation benefiting from prolonged warfare.” Both Russia and Ukraine are undoubtedly exhausted by the conflict that erupted on February 24, 2022. But is it likely that the two countries will reach a peace deal in the near future?

Months before winning the U.S. presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump promised to end the Ukraine conflict “even before he took the Oval Office.” That, however, did not happen. Starting a war has always been much easier than ending it.

Still, what Donald Trump managed to do over the past month was initiate the process of normalizing relations between the United States and Russia. His phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 12 – the day marking the 10th anniversary of the Minsk II agreement, which effectively froze the Donbas war that broke out in the spring of 2014 – was the first step in that direction.

What followed was the summit between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Riyadh on February 18. Although no document has been signed, the two officials agreed to continue holding talks and to appoint ambassadors to each other’s capitals as soon as possible.