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When will the Federal Reserve start to cut interest rates?

2025-06-13

On June 12th, the PPI data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the United States remained moderate, and the impact of tariff policies on prices in the United States has not yet emerged. Furthermore, the number of unemployed people in the United States remained at a high level last week. As prices remain stable and unemployment data remains high, the market has begun to bet on the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year.

On that day, the three major US stock indices opened slightly lower, then fluctuated and rose. As of the time of publication, all three indices turned positive.

Spot gold rose during the trading session, climbing by more than 1.3% at one point and approaching $3,400 per ounce. The US dollar index plunged during the trading session, falling to its lowest level in more than three years.

Prices were stable and the unemployment data exceeded expectations

According to a report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, the PPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month in May, with the increase lower than the market expectation of 0.2%. The core PPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 0.1% month-on-month, lower than the market expectation of 0.3%.

PPI data shows that the profit margins of both wholesalers and retailers rose in May, especially in the automotive and machinery wholesale sectors, compared with a decline in the previous month. Since the beginning of this year, profit margins have fluctuated month by month, highlighting the uncertainty of the impact of trade policies on prices and demand.

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