Nickel ore is subject to tariffs! Indonesia’s $34 billion gift to the US: Has China’s rare earth Trump card been Exposed? The countdown to the transformation of ASEAN is on

34 billion US dollars! This figure exploded like a bomb in the South China Sea. Indonesia’s Chief Minister Ellanga’s statement that “an agreement with the United States is about to be reached” has torn a gap in the trade tacit understanding between China and Indonesia. Indonesia, which had just received an investment commitment from China, immediately signed a super order covering critical minerals, grain purchases and military equipment at the White House. What makes Beijing even more alert is that the agreement conceals the code to break China’s rare earth blockade – Indonesia’s nickel ore resources are being used by the United States as an “alternative solution”.

The calculation behind the 34 billion yuan deal

Indonesia has gone all out this time. Tariffs on over 1,700 kinds of US goods have been directly cut to nearly zero, with electronic devices, chemical products and medical equipment all on the list. In exchange, the United States obtained three crucial tickets: a hard annual purchase target of 1 million tons of wheat (a 35% increase from last year), priority purchase rights for US military equipment, and most importantly, access to cooperation on nickel ore resources. Indonesia, the world’s largest nickel reserve country, which had its 60% mining rights acquired by Chinese enterprises last year, has now opened a “back door” to the United States. This is like a neighbor borrowing your kitchen to cook and then selling the ingredients to your rival.

The offensive and defensive battle against rare earths has begun

When China imposed export controls on seven types of rare earths including samarium and gadolinium in April, the Pentagon was extremely anxious – each F-35 fighter jet consumed 417 kilograms of rare earths, and nuclear submarines had to swallow 4 tons. Now the United States has found a breakthrough point: nickel mines in Indonesia. Although nickel cannot directly replace rare earths, it is indispensable for new energy batteries and military alloys. The report of the US Department of Defense is straightforward: “A diversified mineral supply chain is the lifeline of national defense security.” China’s rare earth card in response to the EU is being quietly defused by the US with resources from Indonesia.

The dominoes in Southeast Asia

Vietnam has long submitted a “pledge” to the United States: a 40% penalty tariff will be imposed on the transshipment of goods between China and Vietnam, while American goods entering Vietnam will be subject to zero tariffs. Cambodia is even worse off. To avoid the 49% tariff, it signed an unequal agreement overnight. Now, Indonesia’s defection has put Malaysia and Thailand in a dilemma – the deadline given by the US has only 20 days left, and the 36% tariff stick has already been raised. Looking at the honeymoon period between China and Indonesia when the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway was first opened, and comparing it with today’s change of face, it truly proves the old saying: In international exchanges, there are no eternal friends, only eternal interests.

China’s countermeasure trump card

Don’t think we’ll just sit and wait to die. The Ministry of Commerce has long stated that any harm to China’s interests will surely be met with countermeasures. Three fronts have been laid out:

Strengthening the rare earth chain – Signing a new mining agreement with Laos, launching a rare earth refinery in Cambodia, and making the supply chain more secure.

Precise tariff strike – Vietnam’s durian exports to China Surge by 37%? Tariffs can be imposed at any time. Sixty percent of Indonesia’s palm oil is sold to China. It is self-evident who holds the pricing power.

Military muscle display – During the live-fire exercise in the Beibu Gulf, the coordinates were advanced by 50 nautical miles, and the research vessel approached the continental shelf of Vietnam to collect hydrological data. This is called a combination of hard and soft tactics, hitting the one who jumps the most joyfully.

This 34-billion-yuan deal, on the surface, is a trade game, but in reality, it is a white-hot battle for minerals. The US uses the tariff stick to force ASEAN to take sides, while China uses rare earths as a shield to break the deadlock. But the real decisive factor does not lie in the agreement itself – Indonesia’s annual nickel ore output accounts for 30% of the global total, and China controls 60% of its processing chain.

Even if the White House obtains the mining rights, without the smelting technology of Chinese enterprises, those ores are just piles of stones. The game among major powers is like playing Go. Capturing pieces is enjoyable but not enough to win. The key lies in who can control the board. When Trump cheered for the 34 billion orders, he might have forgotten an old Chinese saying: “The mantis catches the cicada while the oriole lies behind.