The recent capital inflow in the futures market has shown an accelerated trend, with the total amount of precipitated funds reaching a historical high of nearly 778.3 billion yuan. This data has remained above the 700 billion yuan mark since June 25, showing that market participants’ attention to futures products has increased significantly. At the same time, the number of varieties with a precipitation fund scale of more than 10 billion yuan has increased to 19, including lithium carbonate, polysilicon, hot coils, soybean oil, palm oil and 30-year treasury bond futures.
Product fundamentals expectations have improved significantly
Futures precipitation funds, as the sum of margin occupied by all open contracts in the market, can truly reflect the changes in the amount of holding funds. This indicator is regarded as the core tool for observing market activity and the intensity of long-short game, and its changes reveal the situation of the balance of long-short forces. The continued strengthening of the current total amount of precipitated funds is mainly due to the significant improvement in commodity fundamental expectations.
In the context of a low interest rate environment, the demand for capital hedging has increased significantly, and derivatives represented by financial futures have been favored by institutional funds. The total amount of commodity futures deposited funds also showed a significant upward trend, which is closely related to the direct policy level. Since the policy level has intensively spoken out to rectify “intra-roll” competition, the work plan for stabilizing growth in key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials has been implemented, which has effectively promoted the process of industry adjusting structure, improving supply, and eliminating backward production capacity.
The commodity market is characterized by the “anti-involved” policy orientation, and safe-haven funds continue to increase their holdings in related commodity futures. Policy expectations in the coal industry continue to strengthen, driving the prices of coking coal, glass, polysilicon, industrial silicon, lithium carbonate and other varieties to continue to rise. The holdings of these varieties continue to increase, driving the total amount of precipitated funds to rise rapidly.
The 10 billion-level variety camp continues to expand
At present, there are 19 varieties with a total amount of precipitated funds exceeding 10 billion yuan, of which financial futures products occupy 6 seats. CSI 1000 Stock Index Futures, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Stock Index Futures, CSI 500 Stock Index Futures, Shanghai 50 Stock Index Futures, 30-year Treasury bond futures and 10-year Treasury bond futures all entered the 10 billion yuan echelon. It is worth noting that the total amount of funds accumulated by CSI 1000 Stock Index Futures has exceeded 100 billion yuan, becoming the only product in the futures market with a scale of more than 100 billion yuan.
In terms of commodity futures, a total of 13 varieties have entered the “10 billion yuan club”. Futures products such as Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, Shanghai copper, soybean meal, iron ore, coking coal, rebar, Shanghai aluminum, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, hot coil, soybean oil and palm oil are all on the list. Among them, coking coal, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, soybean oil and palm oil have entered the “10 billion yuan” echelon, showing the strong attraction of these varieties in the current market environment.
The recent sentiment in the futures market has been catalyzed, mainly from the market’s expectations for “anti-involuntary” policies. Emerging industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e-commerce platforms are all within the policy coverage. Lithium carbonate and polysilicon, as the main raw materials in the lithium battery, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics and other industries, have become key varieties favored by safe-haven funds. The supply and demand pattern of the lithium carbonate industry may reverse in the near future. The “anti-intra-volume” policy has driven changes in market expectations, and futures prices have strengthened from temporary lows, attracting a large amount of funds to influx.
