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The IMF raises the global growth forecast

2025-07-30

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the updated content of the World Economic Outlook Report on the 29th, slightly raising the world economic growth expectations this year and next two years. The IMF pointed out that due to factors such as the US trade policy, major economies around the world continue to face uncertainty, and the world economy is still relatively fragile .

The report predicts that the world economy will grow by 3% and 3.1% in 2025 and 2026 , up 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from the forecast in April this year, respectively.

The IMF stressed that the increase in expectations was due to factors such as importers stocking up in advance due to the threat of the U.S. government to impose tariffs. At present, global economic activities are distorted to a certain extent by expectations of substantial tariff imposition. In the next two years, economic policy uncertainty will continue to threaten the stability of the world economy.

The report raised the economic growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies this year and next year by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points to 4.1% and 4% respectively from the April forecast, while also raising the economic growth rate of developed economies this year and next year by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5% and 1.6%.

The IMF said that high uncertainty in trade policies, escalating geopolitical tensions, and intensifying fiscal vulnerability poses a downward risk to the world economy, and economies should reduce uncertainty by building a clear and transparent trade framework. The IMF stressed that pragmatic cooperation among economies is crucial and should be committed to reducing trade and investment barriers

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