The latest analysis released by international rating agency Moody’s in August 2025 shows that the United States is in a critical watershed in the recession. According to the latest revised data of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 53% of industries across the country have started layoffs, and only the healthcare industry maintains job growth. This report, which triggered market turmoil, reveals deep structural problems in the US economic system.
The employment market has contracted significantly for three consecutive months, forming a core signal of economic transition. In July 2025, only 73,000 new non-agricultural employment was added, reaching 37,000 from the market expectations. The data in May and June fell to 19,000 and 14,000 respectively after correction, with a total downward correction of 258,000. Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi pointed out that the recession threshold defined by NBER has been substantially broken. Among the 400 industry categories, job reductions have occurred in 215 fields, which is the fourth time since 1970 that it has exceeded the 50% critical value. This cross-industry job loss marks the repricing of the market prospects on the enterprise side.
The systematic weakening of multi-dimensional economic indicators confirms the approaching risk of recession. The consumer side was particularly weak, with retail sales increasing by only 0.1% in July, and actual consumption expenditure showed negative growth after excluding inflation factors. The manufacturing PMI has been below the boom-bust line for six consecutive months, with the lowest value of 48.3 since February 2024, and the new order index fell to 46.1. The housing market is also under pressure, with the 30-year mortgage rate climbing to a high of 7.25%, causing existing home sales to drop to 3.87 million units annualized, hitting a new low in 2025. JPMorgan Chase research shows that the private sector’s three-month moving average number of hiring dropped to 52,000, a 64% drop from the same period last year.
The dilemma at the economic decision-makers has exacerbated market uncertainty. With an inflation rate of 3.2%, the Federal Reserve maintains a tightening range of 5.25%-5.5% for the federal funds rate, and the policy space is greatly compressed. Former President Trump’s doubts about the credibility of statistics have caused turmoil in the administrative system – the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Director Erica McKentavor, led to market concerns about the continuity of subsequent data. Moody’s analysis team emphasized that any claim that denies basic data at this stage violates economic principles, and the correction of 83% of the employment data from May to July hits the largest fluctuation range since 1976, which is a data feature of a typical economic cycle conversion period.
