The price of Feitian Moutai bulk bottles fell below the 2,000 yuan mark, halved from the peak in 2021. The share price of the liquor sector continued to fall. Moutai, once regarded as the “Chinese version of gold”, is undergoing a revaluation.

Group after group of liquor dealers chose to leave quietly during this season when they should have been stocking up for the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” seasons.

” In the first half of the year, the industry itself basically encountered an inflection point, and coupled with policy factors, it can be said that it is all the way to the end. Some small dealers can be said to have almost ‘returned to zero.’ ” One dealer said with emotion.

His experience is not unique. During its field research, “New Eyes” observed that many opium shops that were once crowded are now closed. Behind the imbalance of supply and demand, a deeper adjustment of the industrial structure is taking place.

According to industry insiders, the inventory of Feitian Moutai currently circulating in the market has exceeded the total of the past three years. Low-price dumping on e-commerce platforms has made matters worse – low prices of 1,700 yuan/bottle appeared on e-commerce platforms such as Pinduoduo, and many dealers were forced to sell at lower than cost prices in order to withdraw funds.

In May 2025, the revised “Regulations on Party and Government Organs Strictly Enforcing Economy and Opposing Waste” were introduced, clarifying that “no wine should be served with work meals” for official receptions. This policy is seen as another punch after the “Eight Provisions” in 2012.

Although government consumption accounts for less than 1% of Moutai’s total consumption, the impact of policy signals on market sentiment far exceeds the actual impact.

After the policy was introduced, liquor stocks shifted from following the market’s volatile rise to deviating from the market and entering a sustained unilateral decline. In addition to Maotai, leading wine companies such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, Jinshiyuan, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yingjia Gongjiu all showed declines.

Moutai’s continued decline in approval prices has been called “the process of removing financial attributes” by industry analyst Cai Xuefei. Speculators who were once keen on hoarding goods in anticipation of rising prices have withdrawn from the market, investment purchases have dropped significantly, and liquor is returning to its drinking essence from an investment product.

Price changes are clearly reflected in the consumer market. Public data shows that the current best selling price range in the liquor market has moved down to 100 yuan to 300 yuan, while mid-range liquor in the 300-800 yuan price range has the fastest growth, accounting for 35%.

In this context, consumers have become more rational and no longer blindly pursue the investment value of high-end liquor.

Within the industry, competition has entered the red ocean stage. From January to June 2025, the top six brands in the liquor market were Moutai, Wuliangye, Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe, and Jiannanchun. The total operating revenue of CR6 liquor brands reached 134.47 billion yuan, accounting for 87.6% of the operating revenue of the 20 A-share liquor brands. The differentiation trend of “the strong will always be strong” has become increasingly significant.

High inventories are another problem facing the industry. The industry average inventory turnover days has reached 900 days, an increase of 10% compared with the same period last year, and the inventory volume increased by 25% year-on-year.

UBS Securities issued a report in July last year warning that dealers’ price expectations for Moutai have turned negative, and inventory pressure has formed a vicious cycle.

While the high-end market is suffering setbacks, the mid- to low-end market is rising. The market size of light bottle wine is expected to exceed 200 billion yuan in 2025, and the growth rate of “high-end light bottles” priced at 50-100 yuan exceeds 40%.

Among them, Yanghe Co., Ltd. and JD.com jointly released Yanghe Daqu High Line Light Bottle Wine in Inner Mongolia Prairie, with a 42-proof bottle priced at 59 yuan. Yilit also announced its light-bottle wine strategy in Xinjiang and launched two Yili granary products: 28 yuan (500ML 42 degrees) and 35 yuan (500ML 50 degrees).