The latest research report from CITIC Securities points out that supported by the dual drivers of loose global liquidity and countries strengthening the competition for key resources, the investment enthusiasm for commodities in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to continue. From the perspective of product differentiation, tight supply has driven copper and cobalt prices to rise continuously, and higher-than-expected energy storage demand has boosted lithium prices. Although precious metals have experienced short-term corrections, the long-term bullish logic remains unchanged, and underperforming varieties such as coal and electrolytic aluminum during the year will also attract more market attention.
The structural market in the industrial metals sector is particularly prominent. Since September, continuous supply disruptions in copper mines have pushed copper prices to a historically high range. The news that the Democratic Republic of the Congo significantly reduced cobalt export quotas in October has further fueled the upward momentum of cobalt prices. Institutions predict that supply-side disruptions will continue to be the core theme in the fourth quarter. Copper prices are expected to trade between $10,000 and $12,000 per ton, and cobalt prices will also remain strong. More notably, the lithium market has turned a corner. With the higher-than-expected growth in energy storage battery shipments, the lithium industry has shifted from previous oversupply to a phased shortage. Prices are expected to break through the range of 80,000-100,000 yuan per ton in Q4, achieving a significant increase from the current level.
Short-term fluctuations in the precious metals market have not changed the long-term trend. From August to mid-October 2025, the prices of gold and silver rose by 41.8% and 45.5% respectively. After hitting record highs, they corrected due to profit-taking. However, the research report emphasizes that the core factors supporting the rise of precious metals—such as the continuous inflow of ETF funds in a loose liquidity environment, risk aversion triggered by geopolitics, and the de-dollarization trend—have not fundamentally changed. Looking ahead to Q4, gold prices are expected to fluctuate between $4,000 and $4,500 per ounce. After a phased correction, they are still expected to return to the upward trend and become one of the main commodity themes throughout 2026.
Against the backdrop of rising concerns about high-level asset risks, underperforming varieties that have been weak during the year have begun to attract capital attention. The expectation of a return to the copper-aluminum ratio driven by high copper prices will support aluminum prices to trade between 20,000 and 21,500 yuan per ton. Thermal coal is expected to continue its recovery trend due to policy disturbances and peak-season demand, with the average price in Q4 possibly rising to 730 yuan per ton. In contrast, the crude oil and steel sectors have performed relatively weakly. Affected by loose supply, international oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level between $60 and $70 per barrel, and the average price of iron ore has been lowered to $85 per ton.
