Amid the confusion surrounding U.S. monetary policy, the precious metals market has ushered in a rally. On November 13, the price of international spot silver exceeded $54 per ounce, approaching its all-time high. The main Shanghai silver contract in China also hit a record high, with an intraday increase of more than 4% at one point, completely overshadowing gold. This rally is no accident but the result of the resonance of multiple positive factors.

Rising risk aversion has become a direct trigger. The 43-day U.S. government shutdown has not only dampened economic expectations but also aroused market doubts about the scientific nature of policy-making. Combined with the uncertainty in the global geopolitical situation, capital has begun to pour into precious metals as a safe haven. At the same time, the continued fermentation of liquidity tensions in the U.S. short-term financing market has further strengthened the defensive demand for asset allocation.

Support from the supply and demand side is more solid. On the industrial demand front, the rapid development of the new energy industry has expanded silver consumption. The silver usage in fields such as photovoltaic cells and new energy vehicles has increased by more than 15% year-on-year, forming long-term demand support. On the supply side, structural shortages have emerged. The problem of insufficient liquidity in spot silver in overseas markets has become increasingly prominent recently, with some traders even experiencing temporary quotation interruptions.

The explosion of investment demand has amplified the rally. The holdings of the world’s largest silver ETF have increased for 12 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative increase of 8.3%, reflecting the active entry of institutional funds. In contrast, although gold has also risen, its performance has been relatively moderate. Spot gold once exceeded $4,180 per ounce but later fell back to below $4,150 due to profit-taking, with an intraday decline of 1.13%, indicating that capital prefers silver with greater flexibility.

Regarding the future market, analysts generally believe that precious metals will maintain a strong oscillation at high levels. “The three major factors—policy uncertainty, industrial demand growth, and investment capital inflows—have not reversed yet,” said Jeff Currie, a commodities analyst at Goldman Sachs. “However, we need to be alert to signals of a policy shift by the Federal Reserve. If it clearly suspends interest rate cuts in December, precious metals may face periodic correction pressure.”