International oil prices have recently continued to fluctuate in a downward channel. After OPEC+ announced an increase in crude oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, causing Brent crude oil prices to plummet by 5.2% in a single day, oil prices are still hovering below $70 per barrel. This trend reflects the profound changes taking place in the global energy market. The dual pressure of shrinking demand and expanding supply has become the core reason for the current pressure on oil prices.
The “fundamental undermining” effect on the demand side is particularly obvious. Affected by the rise of global trade protectionism, U.S. tariff policies have led to an 8% decrease in global trade volume in 2025, and crude oil demand in the transportation industry has dropped by 1.2 million barrels per day. At the same time, the manufacturing industry has seen a 15% increase in costs due to tariff impacts, forcing enterprises to cut production capacity, which further suppresses industrial oil demand. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 three times in a row to 2.8%, the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis. The slowdown in economic growth has directly restricted the growth of crude oil demand.
The strategic shift on the supply side has intensified market volatility. Facing U.S. pressure and the loss of market share, OPEC+ has completely transformed from a “price guardian” to a “market share contender”. Since April 2025, eight countries including Saudi Arabia have increased production by 410,000 barrels per day for three consecutive months, and further increased production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, completely reversing the production reduction policy implemented in 2023. This divergence between supply expansion and demand contraction has trapped oil prices in a continuous adjustment.
At a deeper level, the fluctuation of oil prices is essentially the growing pain during the transition period from the collapse of the old energy system to the reconstruction of the new energy order. In the first half of 2025, the global share of renewable energy power generation reached 42%, an increase of 6 percentage points compared with 2024; the cost of photovoltaic power generation dropped to $0.03 per kilowatt-hour, only one-third of that of coal-fired power. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that by 2030, global industrial oil demand will be 20 million barrels per day lower than that in 2025. In this energy revolution, China is emerging as the core engine of global energy transition. Through the “Belt and Road” Green Investment International Alliance, China has implemented clean energy projects in 30 countries, with a total installed capacity exceeding 120 million kilowatts.
