The latest commodity report from the World Bank has sent a clear signal: the global composite commodity price will drop by another 7% in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline since 2023, with a cumulative drop of 36% from the 2022 peak. The energy sector has become the main driver of the adjustment, with the annual energy index expected to fall by 12%. The average price of Brent crude oil will remain at $68 per barrel and may further drop to $60 in 2026.

The characteristic of structural differentiation is prominent: U.S. natural gas prices are expected to surge by 60% in 2025 due to growing domestic demand, while European natural gas prices will decline by 11% next year. Precious metals, on the other hand, have bucked the trend to lead gains, with the annual index likely to rise by 41%, supported by central bank gold purchases and policy uncertainties. Agricultural products are generally stable and slightly weak, but fertilizer prices have risen by 21% this year, which may squeeze farmers’ profits. The report points out that asset allocation should focus on two main themes: first, the policy easing opportunities brought by energy deflation; second, the long-term value of new energy metals such as copper and tin, as the expansion of data centers will further boost their demand.