During the Asian trading session on December 3, the international commodity market showed a significant correction trend, with both core varieties of gold and crude oil weakening, reflecting a noticeable decline in global market risk aversion compared with previous periods. After hitting a six-week high of $4,258 per ounce yesterday, spot gold experienced a wave of profit-taking in early trading today, with prices falling to as low as $4,210 per ounce, followed by a slight rebound. As of midday, it rose slightly by 0.5% to $4,226 per ounce, a drop of more than $30 from yesterday’s high. Analysts point out that gold’s recent rise was mainly driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data and market bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. However, today’s correction stems from two factors: first, the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 52.7 in November, indicating that the service sector expanded more than expected, weakening expectations of interest rate cuts; second, major central banks around the world jointly issued a statement, emphasizing that they will strengthen the transparency of gold reserve management, alleviating market concerns about gold hoarding driven by “de-dollarization”. From the perspective of position data, the holdings of SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s largest gold ETF, decreased by 3.2 tons yesterday, the first reduction in nearly a week, confirming signs of long-term capital withdrawal.

The crude oil market, on the other hand, continued to decline due to growing concerns about oversupply. The price of light crude oil (WTI) futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down 1.15% at $58.64 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures for February delivery in London closed down 1.14% at $62.45 per barrel, both hitting new lows in nearly two months. Forward-looking data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. crude oil production has risen to a record high of 13.84 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.2 million barrels per day compared with the same period last year, mainly due to breakthroughs in shale oil extraction technology. At the same time, the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) shows that in the week ending November 28, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 2.48 million barrels, far exceeding the market expectation of an increase of 800,000 barrels, and gasoline inventories also increased by 1.56 million barrels, further confirming the pattern of loose supply. On the demand side, the manufacturing recovery of major economies around the world is weak. The OECD predicts that global crude oil demand growth will slow from 2.1% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025. Expectations of supply-demand imbalance have become the core factor suppressing oil prices. Some crude oil-producing countries have issued signals of production cuts, and the market is closely watching the upcoming OPEC+ ministerial meeting.