The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released the “2025 Trade and Development Report” in Geneva on December 3, issuing a warning about the global economic outlook and predicting that the global economic growth rate will slow from 2.9% in 2024 to 2.6% in 2025, the lowest level in nearly three years. The report points out that the global economic recovery is facing “triple pressures”: first, the lagging effects of monetary policy tightening in major developed economies have emerged. The high interest rate environment in economies such as the United States and the Euro Zone has suppressed corporate investment and household consumption. The global private investment growth rate has dropped to 1.8% in 2024, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared with 2023; second, global trade growth is sluggish.

The global merchandise trade volume is expected to grow by only 1.7% in 2025, far lower than the average growth rate of 3.2% in the past decade. The rise of trade protectionism has led to an increase in the cost of global supply chain restructuring; third, the debt crisis in developing countries has intensified. At present, more than 60% of low-income countries are trapped in debt distress, and the pressure of debt repayment has squeezed public expenditures on education, medical care and other people’s livelihood areas, restricting the potential for economic development.

It is worth noting that the report particularly emphasizes that the impact of financial market volatility on global trade is now equivalent to that of the real economy. In 2024, the scale of global cross-border capital flows decreased by 8.3% year-on-year, and emerging market stock and bond markets suffered capital outflows of more than 50 billion U.S. dollars. This “financialization” trend has severely restricted the recovery process of developing countries. Different from the UN’s pessimistic expectations, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) maintained its forecast of 2.9% global economic growth in 2025 in its outlook report released on the same day, but warned of three potential risks: first, global trade barriers continue to increase, with the value of trade restriction measures implemented globally currently exceeding 3 trillion U.S. dollars; second, the investment bubble in the artificial intelligence field is emerging, and the overvaluation of some technology companies may trigger turbulence in the capital market; third, the fiscal vulnerability of some countries has increased. The U.S. federal government debt has risen to 130% of GDP, and the debt problems of Euro Zone countries such as Italy and Spain also deserve attention. Market risk aversion has subsequently heated up. Data shows that the assets of U.S. money market funds have exceeded the 8 trillion U.S. dollar mark, an increase of 1.2 trillion U.S. dollars from the beginning of the year, reflecting investors’ increasing preference for low-risk and high-liquidity assets amid growing uncertainties.