The global industrial metals market has ushered in a simultaneous rally. The price of LME three-month copper recently broke through the $12,000 per ton mark for the first time, and the main Shanghai copper contract in China also exceeded the historical $100,000 per ton mark, rising by more than 3% in a single day and hitting $102,660 per ton intraday, marking the official start of the “supply-constrained bull market” for industrial metals.
Supply-side disruptions are the core factor driving up copper prices. The grade of global copper ore resources has declined, coupled with frequent strikes and production cuts at major mines. Global copper ore output decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in 2025, and raw material inventories of refined copper processing enterprises are at the lowest level in nearly a decade. On the demand side, there is strong support. China’s steady growth policies continue to exert force, and demand for copper from new infrastructure, power grid transformation, and the new energy vehicle industry chain remains high. From January to November 2025, China’s new energy vehicle sales increased by 35% year-on-year, driving copper consumption growth of more than 800,000 tons; at the same time, the recovery of manufacturing in overseas economies has further boosted copper export demand.
In addition, the impact of potential U.S. tariff policies has exacerbated market tensions, and enterprises’ willingness to stock up in advance has increased significantly. A large amount of copper has been shipped to the United States in advance, further reducing inventory levels in other regions. UBS analysts pointed out that the environment of falling interest rates is conducive to the recovery of demand for physical assets, while key metals required for energy transformation generally face limited capacity expansion, and supply constraints will continue to support prices. However, the market also needs to pay attention to the uncertainty of the global economic recovery pace, which may suppress the elasticity of the demand side.
