The tariff war initiated by the U.S. Trump administration in 2025 has continued to impact the global trade order, becoming the biggest risk factor dragging down the world economy. It is reported that the United States has imposed “reciprocal tariffs” on most trading partners this year and has imposed or threatened to impose additional tariffs on key products such as automobiles, steel, aluminum, and semiconductors, triggering countermeasures from many countries and seriously eroding global growth momentum.

The negative impact of tariff policies has gradually emerged. Domestically in the United States, high tariffs have pushed up inflation costs through the price transmission mechanism, weakened corporate investment willingness and residents’ consumption capacity, and damaged the innovation capacity of the manufacturing and high-tech industries deeply embedded in the global supply chain. The latest Economic Outlook Report released by the OECD in early December shows that affected by factors such as additional tariffs, U.S. economic growth will slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025 and further to 1.7% in 2026.

Globally, tariff policies have suppressed global demand, impacted export-oriented economies, led to adjustments in the global supply chain that deviate from the principles of efficiency and comparative advantage, resulting in rising production and transaction costs and declining stability of the industrial system. An official of the UNCTAD stated that the uncertainty of tariff policies has profoundly affected investor decisions and supply chain operations, seriously impacting the global trade growth trend. The Chairman of the German Federal Association for Economic Development and Foreign Trade bluntly stated that the tariff war has made the world rethink the importance of the multilateral trading system to avoid regressing into a “jungle era.”