The international commodity market in 2025 has shown a significantly divergent pattern, with the continuous decline in oil prices forming a sharp contrast to the soaring prices of gold and copper. Affected by weak global demand and surging supply, international oil prices have recently fallen to their lowest level since February 2021, with an annual decline of approximately 20%. Trafigura Group warned that the oil market will face a “super surplus” in 2026, and many institutions predict that the average oil price next year may be below $60 per barrel.

In contrast, the price of gold has risen by about 60% this year, breaking historical peaks more than 50 times, and is expected to achieve its best annual performance since 1979. The combined effect of continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world and six consecutive months of net inflows into gold ETFs has pushed the gold price above $4,000 per ounce. Copper prices have also continued to soar due to the surging demand from the new energy industry and tight supply; copper mine accidents in Chile have exacerbated the supply gap, and institutions predict that the global copper supply gap will still reach 20% by 2035. However, the Bank for International Settlements warned of signs of a bubble in the gold market; if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in 2026, the gold price may face a correction of 5%-20%.