With the Federal Reserve completing its third interest rate cut of the year at the end of 2025, its policy path in 2026 has become the focus of the global market. Current market expectations are divided: institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank predict that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates next year, and the US dollar may weaken further; while Bank of America analysts believe that the current interest rate level of 3.5%-3.75% is already in a reasonable range, and further rate cuts will push up inflation and risky asset prices.

The OECD warned that US tariff policies have suppressed overall demand, and the dual impact of a cooling job market and tariff-driven consumer price increases will reduce the Federal Reserve’s room for interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve’s policy direction will affect the global economy through channels such as capital flows and exchange rates. If it continues to cut interest rates, it may exacerbate the volatility of hot money in emerging markets; if it pauses easing, it may change the logic of global asset pricing. Currently, the rise in global major government bond yields has reflected market expectations for the end of the rate cut cycle, and the US dollar and British pound may come under pressure due to relatively loose policies. The 2026 foreign exchange market will usher in a critical adjustment period.