At 24:00 on January 6th, China’s new round of refined oil price adjustment window opened. Since the adjustment amount was less than 50 yuan per ton, the prices of gasoline and diesel remained unchanged this time, and the unadjusted amount will be included in the accumulation or offset of the next price adjustment. During this adjustment cycle (December 22, 2025 – January 5, 2026), international oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with Brent crude oil futures prices operating consistently in the range of $60-63 per barrel.

Intertwined bullish and bearish factors have formed the volatile pattern of oil prices. On the supportive side, geopolitical risks continue to rise: the United States has stepped up sanctions and military strikes against Venezuela, the progress of Russia-Ukraine conflict negotiations is slow, and Saudi Arabia has launched air strikes on Yemen. The escalating tensions in the Middle East have all provided support for oil prices. On the suppressing side, it stems from expectations of a global oil supply surplus. Data from the International Energy Agency shows that as of October 2025, global observable oil inventories have risen to 8030 million barrels, the highest level since August 2021.

International oil prices rebounded slightly overnight. Light crude oil futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.00 to close at $58.32 per barrel, an increase of 1.74%; Brent crude oil futures for March delivery rose $1.01 to close at $61.76 per barrel, an increase of 1.66%. The Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission predicts that the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation will be the main factor affecting short-term international oil price fluctuations, and it is necessary to focus on the development of the situation in the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine and Venezuela.