The latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that the global economic growth forecast for 2026 has been raised by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, and the growth rate is expected to slow slightly to 3.2% in 2027. The upward revision of the growth forecast is mainly driven by the better-than-expected performance of major economies, with developed economies and emerging markets showing a divergent trend. Among them, the US growth forecast for 2026 has been raised by 0.3 percentage points to 2.4%, supported by corporate investment tax incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act and resilient domestic demand.

The euro zone’s recovery is sluggish, with its 2026 growth forecast raised by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3%, constrained by the structural damage to the manufacturing industry from high energy prices and insufficient dividends from AI investment. Japan’s growth rate was slightly adjusted to 0.7%, with limited effects of fiscal stimulus and lingering aging population issues. Among emerging markets, China’s 2026 growth forecast has been raised by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%, while India maintains its leading position, with its 2025 growth forecast raised by 0.7 percentage points to 7.3%. Against the backdrop of global economic momentum shifting, policy intensity and the progress of industrial transformation will be the key determinants of the performance of various economies.