Today, the latest outlooks from many international institutions show that the slowdown of global economic growth in 2026 has become a high-probability event. “Growth resilience” and “vulnerability risks” coexist, and the regional differentiation trend has further intensified, bringing sustained uncertainty to the global financial market. The IMF predicts that the world economy will grow by 3.3% in 2026, while the United Nations gives a growth forecast of 2.7%, both lower than the estimated level in 2025.

In terms of regional performance, the differentiation trend is particularly obvious. The manufacturing PMIs of Asia and Africa have both risen above 50%, showing a recovery trend. Among them, East Asia is expected to achieve 4.4% economic growth in 2026, and South Asia 5.6%, becoming the core engine of global economic recovery; while the manufacturing PMIs of Europe and the Americas are both below 50%, and the American manufacturing PMI even dropped below 48%, with the weakness further highlighted.

In terms of risk factors, the uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies, geopolitical conflicts and high global debt have become the main hidden dangers. Data from the Institute of International Finance shows that as of September 2025, the global total debt reached 345.7 trillion US dollars, 3.1 times the global GDP. The outstanding debt of developed markets hit an all-time high, and the external debt repayment gap of some developing countries reached 741 billion US dollars, with the risk of debt default rising.

However, there are also positive signals. The technological revolution represented by AI is accelerating its penetration into the real economy. The IMF predicts that from 2025 to 2030, artificial intelligence will drive global economic growth by about 0.5% every year. Digital transformation investment has become a new engine of global investment, which is expected to accumulate strength for a new round of global economic growth and ease the pressure of growth slowdown.