On February 23rd, the international crude oil futures market continued its narrow fluctuation trend, with the two benchmark crude oil contracts closing slightly lower. The interweaving of geopolitical games and uncertainty in global trade policies has become the core factor affecting oil price trends. By the close, the price of light crude oil (WTI) futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 17 cents to close at $66.31 per barrel, a decrease of 0.26%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for delivery on the London Stock Exchange fell 27 cents to close at $71.49 per barrel, a decrease of 0.38%.
From the perspective of influencing factors, the frequent adjustments in global trade policies have become the primary variable. After the U.S. Supreme Court ruled on February 20th that the large-scale tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration citing the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was illegal, Trump announced that he would impose a 15% import tariff on global goods for 150 days in accordance with the Trade Act of 1974. At the same time, U.S. Customs will stop collecting tariffs previously imposed under IEEPA on February 24th. The repeated swings in trade policies have made the global economic outlook and energy demand expectations full of uncertainty, restraining the upward momentum of oil prices.
In terms of geopolitics, the twists and turns in U.S.-Iran relations have become an important driver of oil price volatility. Cinda Securities pointed out that Trump’s plan to restart nuclear negotiations with Iran led to a cooling of geopolitical risks. Coupled with the gradual recovery of oil fields in Kazakhstan and U.S. crude oil production, supply pressure rebounded; however, the United States later shot down an Iranian drone and Iranian armed speedboats approached U.S. oil tankers, leading to the rapid return of geopolitical risk premiums and a short-term rebound in oil prices, with long and short factors restricting each other.
Supply-side data shows that in the week ending January 30th, U.S. crude oil production was 13.215 million barrels per day, a month-on-month decrease of 481,000 barrels per day, and commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels month-on-month. Short-term supply-side volatility will continue. Market analysis believes that under the interweaving of trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical games, international oil prices will maintain narrow fluctuations in the short term, and investors need to focus on the progress of U.S.-Iran relations and global trade policy trends.
