On February 27, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) issued an announcement, deciding to lower the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales business from 20% to 0 starting from March 2, 2026. This policy adjustment aims to promote the stable development of the foreign exchange market, reduce the exchange rate risk management costs of foreign trade enterprises, and better serve the real economy.

Recently, the RMB against the US dollar has continued to strengthen, with both onshore and offshore exchange rates hitting a new high in nearly 34 months, and market expectations of unilateral appreciation have heated up. Experts analyze that the current reduction of the reserve ratio is not to change the exchange rate trend, but to send a clear policy signal, guide the market to rationally view exchange rate fluctuations, reduce the “herd effect”, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.

For foreign trade enterprises, the policy directly reduces the hedging cost of forward foreign exchange purchase, helping enterprises to more flexibly use foreign exchange derivatives to manage exchange rate risks and stabilize business expectations. At the same time, the central bank conducted a large-scale reverse repurchase operation today, with a net capital injection, continuously ensuring the reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the market and providing solid support for exchange rate stability. The market generally believes that the RMB exchange rate will tend to fluctuate in both directions in the future, and enterprises should abandon the one-sided betting thinking and strengthen risk-neutral management.