Recently, six Fed officials have made intensive remarks, clarifying the monetary policy tone for the year, which is generally hawkish, leading to a continuous cooling of market expectations for interest rate cuts and exerting a significant impact on global capital markets. Fed official Cook pointed out that the AI investment boom will temporarily push up central bank interest rates, and the unemployment problem brought about by AI cannot be solved by monetary easing, which may instead exacerbate inflation. Before inflation clearly falls back, interest rate cuts will not be easily implemented, and only cautious optimism is maintained about the room for interest rate cuts within the year.

Other officials have divided attitudes but are generally hawkish. Bostic emphasized that even if AI drives productivity improvement, fighting inflation remains the Fed’s top priority; Collins and Waller are relatively moderate, believing that AI will not have a significant impact on employment, and interest rates are likely to remain at the current level for some time; Barkin stated that the current monetary policy position is relatively favorable, and productivity improvement is not entirely due to AI.

Affected by this, the US dollar index stood above the 98 mark and fluctuated strongly, while the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.35%, suppressing the valuation of growth stocks. Among global stock markets, US tech stocks came under pressure, with Nvidia’s market value evaporating more than 3.1 trillion yuan in two days, and the Nasdaq fell 0.92% last Friday. Market analysis holds that the Fed’s stance of suspending interest rate cuts and maintaining high interest rates will continue to affect global capital flows. Investors need to be vigilant about the correction risk of high-valuation growth stocks and focus on anti-inflation sectors and the AI computing power field.