On March 16, the world’s seven major central banks ushered in a critical policy juncture. Amid stagflation risks and geopolitical shocks, the direction of monetary policy has become the core focus of the market. U.S. President Donald Trump publicly pressured Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to “cut interest rates immediately” without waiting for the next FOMC meeting, forming a sharp contrast with the Fed’s internal “patient and prudent” attitude.

The latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that U.S. short-term inflation expectations have fallen slightly to 3.0%, but they are still significantly higher than the 2% long-term target, putting the Fed in a dilemma over its interest rate cut decision. Goldman Sachs has postponed the Fed’s first interest rate cut from June to September, maintaining the expectation of two 25-basis-point rate cuts throughout the year, mainly due to the upward inflation risk driven by the situation in the Middle East.

On the European Central Bank (ECB) front, President Christine Lagarde explicitly denied that the euro zone is in stagflation, emphasizing that the current uncertainty is too high to preset the interest rate path. However, Governing Council member Peter Kazimir warned that inflation risks driven by the Iran conflict may force the ECB to raise interest rates in advance. Central banks in Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada and other countries will also announce interest rate decisions intensively this week. The market generally pays attention to the trade-off between inflation and growth by each central bank, as well as the subtle changes in policy tone. This wave of interest rate meetings may reshape the global liquidity pattern.