On March 18, international oil prices trended in a volatile manner, with divergences between Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil, influenced by geopolitical conflicts and policy adjustments. By the end of the day, Brent crude oil rose 3.64% intraday, once falling below the 100-dollar-per-barrel threshold; while WTI crude oil broke through 96 US dollars per barrel, it then dropped 0.38% intraday.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are one of the core drivers of price fluctuations. The U.S. Central Command stated that several hours ago, U.S. forces used 5,000-pound bunker-buster munitions against an Iranian missile site near the Iranian coast in the Strait of Hormuz. The death of Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, further heightened market expectations of a tightening crude oil supply, pushing Brent crude oil higher in the short term, once hitting 103.42 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 3.2%.

To hedge against rising oil prices, the United States announced that it would relax sanctions on Venezuela during the period of tense Iran-U.S. relations to release more oil resources. Meanwhile, Iraq’s Oil Minister stated that the Iraqi government has reached an agreement with the Kurdish authorities to resume oil exports to the Ceyhan Port in Turkey starting from Wednesday. These two measures have increased oil supply, imposing a certain degree of pressure on oil prices.

Market analysis shows that the current crude oil market is in a game between supply and demand. On one hand, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East bring supply uncertainty; on the other hand, various countries are adjusting policies to stabilize the market by increasing supply. In the short term, oil prices will continue to be volatile under the influence of geopolitical situations, and investors need to pay close attention to the shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz and changes in relevant sanctions policies.