The A-share market witnessed a volatile consolidation trend in March, with the Shanghai Composite Index once falling below the 4,000-point mark, intensified stock differentiation, and cautious market sentiment. This round of adjustment is not due to weak domestic economic fundamentals, but external pressure from the resonance of three overseas factors: first, the Middle East geopolitical conflict pushed up oil prices, sparking concerns about global stagflation; second, the Fed’s hawkish stance delayed rate cut expectations, and rising U.S. bond yields suppressed global risk appetite; third, tightened global capital flows increased periodic volatility in northbound capital, disturbing A-share liquidity.
From the perspective of internal fundamentals, the supporting logic of A-shares remains unchanged. China’s economy got off to a steady start, with industrial and consumption data rebounding, the performance of listed companies gradually recovering, and tracks such as new quality productive forces, digital economy and high-end manufacturing showing optimistic profit expectations. Policies continue to send positive signals, with fiscal and monetary policies working in synergy, continuous deepening of capital market reforms, and accelerated entry of medium and long-term funds, providing underlying support for the market.
The current market is at a critical stage of “valuation repair + performance verification”, and short-term fluctuations do not change the medium and long-term upward trend. Institutions generally believe that the adjustment brought by external disturbances instead breeds layout opportunities. Industry allocation can focus on two directions: first, defensive sectors benefiting from high oil prices and with stable cash flow, such as coal chemical industry and energy equipment; second, growth tracks supported by policies and with strong performance certainty, such as artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy and new energy. For ordinary investors, it is recommended to stay rational, avoid chasing gains and selling losses, and layout high-quality assets from a long-term perspective.
