In March 2026, the risk of global inflation has resurfaced, driven primarily by geopolitical conflicts, leaving monetary policies of various countries in a dilemma. The ongoing tense situation in the Middle East has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing international crude oil prices sharply higher. Brent crude broke through the $100 per barrel mark, driving up costs across global energy, chemical, transportation and other industrial chains, and inflationary pressures are transmitting from bulk commodities to end consumption. U.S. CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in February, with stubborn core inflation; the euro zone and emerging market countries are also facing imported inflationary pressures, temporarily ending the global “low inflation, loose monetary” environment.

The Fed’s policy shift has become the focus of the market. The March FOMC meeting announced a pause in interest rate hikes, completely shattering market expectations of multiple rate cuts within the year. The Fed stated bluntly that rising energy prices have heightened inflation uncertainty, the pace of rate cuts will slow significantly, and the high interest rate environment may last longer. Affected by this, U.S. bond yields climbed and the U.S. dollar index strengthened, triggering a return of global capital to the United States and putting periodic pressure on currencies and stock markets in emerging markets.

In contrast, China’s monetary policy adheres to the principle of “prioritizing domestic needs”. The central bank has explicitly implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy, balancing growth stabilization and risk prevention. On the one hand, it maintains reasonably ample liquidity and increases financial support for the real economy, technological innovation and green transformation; on the other hand, it closely tracks global inflation and exchange rate fluctuations to build a strong line of defense for financial security. For ordinary investors, amid rising global inflation, it is necessary to guard against risks of high-volatility assets, appropriately allocate varieties with stable cash flow and strong inflation-resistant attributes, and avoid blindly chasing hot spots.