On March 31, the international crude oil market experienced sharp fluctuations. WTI crude oil prices surged past $105 per barrel, with an intraday gain of 5%, hitting a new high since 2022. Tense geopolitical situations have become the core factor driving the sharp rise in oil prices. It is reported that the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, and the confrontation between Iran and the United States has intensified. The Iranian Parliament has approved a bill to impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, banning ships from the United States and related sanctioned countries from passing through. The toll for a single oil tanker may be as high as $2 million, further exacerbating concerns about global crude oil supply.

Egyptian relevant institutions have warned that if the situation in the Middle East further deteriorates, crude oil prices may climb to $200 per barrel in extreme cases. Affected by this, the domestic oil and gas sector strengthened simultaneously, and petrochemical-related stocks ushered in an upward trend. At the same time, the rise in oil prices has also brought pressure to the midstream manufacturing industry, and sectors such as photovoltaic and power have pulled back due to rising costs.

Industry analysts pointed out that the current pattern of supply-demand imbalance in the crude oil market is prominent. Geopolitical conflicts coupled with supply disruptions mean that oil prices may still have room to rise in the short term, but we need to be vigilant about the correction risk after the situation eases. For the downstream consumer sector, the rise in oil prices may further push up logistics and production costs, and we will need to pay attention to the cost transmission of related industries in the follow-up. As of 13:00 today, WTI crude oil was quoted at $106.2 per barrel, remaining at a high level.