In the early morning of April 9th Beijing time, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz suddenly changed. On the first day of the US-Iran temporary ceasefire taking effect, Iran suspended the passage of all oil tankers through the strait due to Israel’s air strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, leaving nearly 800 ships stranded at sea. International oil prices fluctuated in response, once again affecting the nerves of the global energy market.

As a global energy gateway, the Strait of Hormuz is only 33 kilometers at its narrowest point and undertakes about 20% of the world’s oil trade transportation tasks. Crude oil and liquefied natural gas from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and other countries must be transported to Eurasia through here, and its navigation status directly determines the stability of global energy supply. This time, Iran claimed that the strait was “completely closed”, which was actually high-intensity maritime control. Ships need to be approved and inspected, and navigation efficiency dropped to a standstill.

Affected by this, WTI crude oil prices rose by more than 3% in the Asian morning session, approaching $98 per barrel, and global inflation expectations heated up again. At present, the situation is still in a fragile balance. The first round of US-Iran negotiations is scheduled to be held on April 11th, and whether Israel’s military operations will continue will determine whether the strait will escalate from a “quasi-blockade” to a long-term closure.

For the global economy, the closure of the strait will directly push up energy costs, which will be transmitted to many industries such as chemicals and logistics, affecting the stability of the global supply chain. This game far away in the Middle East is closely linked to the economies of various countries and the living costs of people through energy prices.