In April 2026, the new energy market presents a distinct picture of differentiation: the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has soared by 120% in 10 months, standing at 158,000 yuan/ton; the new installed capacity of photovoltaics has decreased by 17.71% year-on-year, experiencing the first negative growth since grid parity; while overseas orders for energy storage have surged by 45% year-on-year, and the production capacity of leading enterprises is scheduled to the third quarter.
The core of the strong lithium price is the imbalance between supply and demand. On the demand side, the proportion of energy storage cell production scheduling has increased to 40.6%, and power batteries have benefited from the increase in per-vehicle power capacity and export growth, with sustained strong demand; on the supply side, the ban on lithium concentrate exports in Zimbabwe and the shortage of diesel in Australia have disrupted supply. Institutions predict that the global lithium market will have a shortage of 80,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2026, and the price will maintain a strong oscillation.
The photovoltaic industry is facing double pressures. Since April 1, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products has been cancelled, ending the policy dividend. Coupled with the decline in silicon material and silicon wafer prices and high inventory, some enterprises have cut production. However, BC battery technology has expanded against the trend, with monthly output exceeding 4GW, becoming the key to the industry’s breakthrough.
The energy storage sector has ushered in triple dividends. The national level has clarified the energy storage capacity electricity price mechanism, supported by the rigid demand of AI data centers and the high prosperity of the overseas market, the overseas contracted orders in January-February exceeded 33.5GWh. The current investment logic of new energy has shifted from sector β to individual stock α. The tight balance between supply and demand of lithium mines and the long-term growth of energy storage are worthy of key attention.
