The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recently released its latest economic outlook report, predicting that the global economic growth rate will be 2.9% in 2026 and will rise slightly to 3.0% in 2027. The report points out that the uncertainty of the situation in the Middle East has become the biggest test for the global economy, and the high operation of energy prices may drag down the growth prospect.

The report analyzes that before the escalation of the Middle East conflict, the global economy was generally resilient, investment related to artificial intelligence was active, fiscal policy support was sufficient, and economic activities continued to heat up; after the escalation of the conflict, the surge in energy prices and supply chain disturbances have offset the previous growth momentum to a certain extent.

By region, the U.S. economic growth rate will slow down from 2.0% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027; dragged down by high energy prices, the euro zone’s growth rate is expected to drop to 0.8% in 2026 and is expected to rise to 1.2% in 2027. In terms of inflation, the inflation rate of G20 countries is expected to reach 4.0% in 2026, 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous forecast, and will fall back to 2.7% in 2027.

The report emphasizes that there are significant uncertainties in the current global economic prospect. If exports from the Middle East are continuously blocked, it will further push up energy prices and exacerbate the shortage of bulk commodities. All countries need to maintain the vigilance of monetary policy, strengthen financial supervision, and at the same time improve energy efficiency, reduce dependence on fossil energy, and enhance economic resilience. For China, it is necessary to seize the opportunity of global industrial transformation and consolidate the economic recovery momentum.