At 21:00 on April 14, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook, upgrading its 2026 global growth forecast from 3.2% to 3.5%, marking the first upward revision in nearly a year. The report cited stronger-than-expected U.S. economic resilience, China’s ongoing recovery, and strengthening domestic demand in emerging markets as key pillars of global expansion.

The IMF lifted its 2026 U.S. growth projection to 2.7%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points, supported by robust consumption and a tight labor market. China’s growth forecast was kept unchanged at 5.2%, backed by strong first-quarter trade and industrial data. The Euro area saw a mild upgrade to 1.1%, though growth remains subdued due to high interest rates and energy costs. Emerging and developing economies are projected to expand 4.3%, with India and Southeast Asian nations standing out as new growth engines.

However, the IMF warned of three major risks: persistent conflict in the Middle East, which could reduce global growth by 0.5 percentage points if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted; stronger-than-expected inflation in major economies keeping monetary policy restrictive; and rising trade fragmentation and protectionism weighing on supply-chain efficiency. The report called for strengthened international cooperation to ease geopolitical tensions and avoid trade barriers to sustain the global recovery.