Precious metals staged an extreme reversal. On the morning of April 15, spot gold briefly broke above $4,870 per ounce to a record high, then plunged sharply to as low as $4,816.36, with an intraday amplitude of over $50. COMEX gold futures rose 2.04% to $4,864.50, and silver futures surged 5.23% to $79.62.

Gold’s rise-then-fall was driven by multiple factors. Escalating geopolitical tensions boosted safe-haven demand, coupled with industrial demand expectations, pushing gold higher. However, hawkish Fed comments quickly reversed the trend. On April 14, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that persistent Middle East conflict could delay Fed rate cuts until 2027. The US Dollar Index broke above 108 to a six-month high, and the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.8%, weighing on precious metals.

Capital flows showed divergence: emerging market central banks began selling gold to stabilize currencies, with gold ETFs seeing over $4.2 billion in outflows in March, a 10-year high. Silver, however, performed strongly, breaking above $80, supported by both industrial demand and speculative inflows. Analysts judged that without Fed rate cuts or a worsening Middle East situation, gold lacks strong upward momentum. Precious metals will remain highly volatile in the short term, focusing on US-Iran talks and Fed policy signals.