On August 12, US long-term treasury bond yields continued to rise, with the 30-year US treasury yield surging to a stage high of 5.28% intraday. The continuous upward movement of long-term interest rates marks the further tightening of global long-term dollar liquidity. The surge in long-term bond yields is mainly driven by the superposition of multiple factors including the expansion of US fiscal bond issuance, sticky inflation expectations and market risk hedging games, leading to a sharp increase in the allocation cost of long-term capital.

As the pricing anchor of global long-term assets, rising long-term US treasury yields directly suppress the valuation of global growth stocks, technology stocks and emerging market assets, intensifying fluctuations in global capital markets. Affected by rising interest rates, risky assets such as cryptocurrencies and commodities weakened simultaneously, and market risk appetite continued to cool down. In contrast to the surge in long-term bond yields, short-term interest rates remained relatively stable, steepening the US treasury yield curve and reflecting growing market concerns about long-term inflation and fiscal risks.

Market institutions analyzed that long-term treasury yields will maintain a high volatile pattern before the release of US July CPI data. The supply pressure brought by continuous large-scale US bond issuance and inflation uncertainty caused by rebounding energy prices will support long-term interest rates at a high level for a long time. Tightened long-term dollar liquidity will continuously affect global cross-border capital flows, increasing capital outflow pressure in emerging markets and promoting the continuous repricing of global assets.

Investors are advised to stay alert to market risks brought by long-term interest rate fluctuations and adjust asset allocation strategies to adapt to the tightening global liquidity environment.