On August 12, the international crude oil market continued its strong upward trend. Brent crude oil futures stabilized above $89 per barrel, while WTI crude oil climbed to $83.2 per barrel, achieving four consecutive trading days of gains and sustaining high prosperity in the global energy market. The core driving force behind the oil price rally is the continuous fermentation of geopolitical uncertainties in the Strait of Hormuz. The sharp rise in shipping risk premiums has directly increased the cost of global crude oil trade.

As the core transportation channel for global crude oil, the Strait of Hormuz carries nearly 20% of the world’s crude oil trade volume. Geopolitical tensions have restricted oil tanker shipping and pushed insurance fees higher, with rental prices for VLCC super-large oil tankers continuing to rise, tightening market expectations for crude oil supply. Meanwhile, the global summer peak consumption season for crude oil continues, with strong demand for refined oil products in Europe and America. The tight supply and demand pattern further supports rising oil prices and relieves the pressure of previous price corrections.

Institutions predict that short-term geopolitical conflicts cannot be eased quickly, and the crude oil market will maintain a high volatile trend, with imported inflation pressure continuously affecting global economies. China’s refined oil price adjustment window will adjust synchronously with international oil price fluctuations. The profitability of upstream oil and gas exploitation and refining enterprises in the energy industrial chain continues to recover, while demand for new energy alternative tracks also increases.

In the medium and long term, geopolitical risks and supply-demand mismatch will become the core variables of oil price fluctuations, and the high-volatility pattern of the global energy market will continue, bringing both challenges and structural opportunities to global energy investment and economic operation.