On August 12, US stock markets maintained a weak volatile trend, with the Nasdaq Index closing down 0.6% overnight. Global capital markets entered a cautious wait-and-see mode as investors are highly anticipating the release of US July CPI inflation data. As the core decision-making basis for the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate meeting, the latest inflation figures will directly determine the pace of interest rate cuts within the year, triggering widespread attention from global investors. Most institutions choose to reduce positions in advance to avoid market volatility risks brought by data release.
Current market expectations suggest that the year-on-year increase of US July CPI may decline slightly, but core inflation remains highly sticky. Rigid price sub-items such as service consumption and housing rents are falling slowly. In addition, international crude oil prices have risen for four consecutive trading days, reviving energy-driven inflation pressure and increasing the uncertainty of US inflation cooling. If the CPI data is stronger than expected, the Federal Reserve may postpone the interest rate cut plan for the year and even retain the possibility of raising interest rates, directly suppressing the valuation of global risk assets.
Besides inflation data, upward energy price pressure caused by escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions continues to disturb global market sentiment. Asian stock markets show divergent performance: South Korea’s stock index rose more than 1.5% against the trend, while Japanese and Australian stock indexes fluctuated narrowly with limited overall volatility. Institutional forecasts indicate that global capital markets will remain data-driven in the short term. Before the release of CPI data, market volatility will stay at a high level, and capital will prefer safe-haven assets such as gold and US treasury bonds, putting overall pressure on equity markets.
The market is in a critical window of policy expectation adjustment, and all asset classes will reprice rapidly based on the final inflation results, shaping the trend of global financial markets in mid-to-late August.
