On August 13, the global energy market maintained a high volatile pattern as geopolitical risks in Red Sea shipping reheated continuously, disturbing the supply and demand expectations of international crude oil. Brent crude oil stably operated above 88 US dollars per barrel. As a core energy shipping channel between Europe and Asia, the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait undertake most of the crude oil export tasks from the Middle East. The recent repeated regional fluctuations have boosted shipping risk aversion, raising oil tanker transportation costs and risk premiums to support high oil prices.

The global crude oil supply and demand pattern remains tight overall. The summer peak energy consumption season in Europe and the United States is not over, and the rigid demand for refined oil products continues to underpin oil prices. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ production reduction policy has been fully implemented, and the supply contraction effect continues to emerge. Combined with supply uncertainties caused by geopolitical conflicts, the downward space of oil prices is completely locked.

Despite the continuous rise in oil prices in the early stage, the resilience of global energy demand exceeds market expectations with no obvious demand shrinkage. Institutions predict that the Red Sea geopolitical situation cannot be completely eased in the short term, and the crude oil market will maintain high volatility and strong resilience.

High oil prices will continuously bring imported inflation pressure to the world and restrict the monetary policy adjustment of various economies. The profitability of domestic energy and refining sectors will continue to recover, and the demand for new energy substitution will be further stimulated. In the medium and long term, normalized geopolitical risks will reshape the global energy pricing system, and high volatility in the energy market will become a long-term normal state.