On August 13, multiple Federal Reserve officials delivered hawkish monetary policy remarks, breaking the market’s unanimous rate-cut expectations and triggering rapid fluctuations in global financial markets. Tom Barkin, President of the Richmond Fed, clearly stated that US inflation still faces persistent risks and core inflation stickiness has not completely faded. Early interest rate cuts may lead to a rebound in inflation, and the Fed will maintain a higher-for-longer interest rate stance.

After the remarks, global assets experienced a rapid correction. International crude oil, London spot gold and COMEX gold plunged synchronously, and bulk commodities weakened collectively. The US dollar index rebounded slightly, and the gains of US stocks narrowed sharply. The overdrawn market expectations for the first September rate cut cooled rapidly. Previously, markets widely bet on the Fed’s first rate cut in September based on the cooling July CPI data.

However, divergent remarks from inside the Fed prove that monetary policy decisions remain highly cautious, and the central bank has not confirmed the launch of the annual easing cycle. Institutional analysis shows that the US economy presents a complex pattern of slowly declining inflation and resilient employment, bringing great uncertainty to Fed policy adjustments.

In the follow-up period, the market will focus on August inflation and employment data, and Fed officials’ speeches will continue to dominate short-term market sentiment. Global assets will maintain high volatility before policy landing, with accelerated rotation between safe-haven and risky assets. Investors need to guard against staged market fluctuations caused by repeated policy expectation adjustments.