On August 13, global energy authorities updated the latest crude oil supply and demand forecast report, significantly raising the expected global crude oil supply-demand gap for the third quarter. The gap doubled from the previous month’s estimate of 800,000 barrels per day to 1.8 million barrels per day, further intensifying the tight balance of the global crude oil market.

The report indicates that the expanding gap is mainly driven by the continuous implementation of OPEC+ production cuts, strong rigid demand during the global summer energy consumption peak, and reduced crude oil circulation efficiency caused by geopolitical shipping risks, which jointly lead to continuous consumption of global crude oil inventory buffers. On the supply side, Middle Eastern oil-producing countries strictly implement production reduction agreements with limited crude oil export increments. Shipping disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea extend the turnover cycle of seaborne crude oil, resulting in a significant contraction in effective market supply.

On the demand side, industrial recovery in Europe and the United States and peak summer travel boost refined oil consumption, while the operating rate of chemical and refining industries in the Asia-Pacific region remains high. The resilience of global crude oil demand far exceeds early market expectations. The supply-demand mismatch continuously depletes global crude oil inventories and narrows market buffer space.

Institutions predict that the expanded crude oil supply-demand gap in Q3 will support high oil prices and delay the easing of energy inflation pressure. Tight energy supply will accelerate the transformation of the global energy structure, expand demand for new energy substitution and energy storage industries, and form a structural differentiation trend between traditional energy and new energy tracks in the global market.