On August 18, international crude oil prices rebounded sharply, driven mainly by escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions. The October Brent crude oil futures surged 2.7%, closing at $90.87 per barrel and hitting a new monthly high in August. The September WTI crude oil futures rose 2.6% to settle at $84.50 per barrel, marking a comprehensive rise in risk premiums across the global energy market.

The core driver of the oil price rally is the continuous deterioration of Middle East geopolitical situations. The negotiation for extending the US-Iran memorandum of understanding has stalled with widening bilateral differences, raising the risk of regional conflict spill-over and increasing shipping uncertainties in the Strait of Hormuz. As the world’s core crude oil transportation channel, higher passage risks directly raise global crude oil trade costs. Supported by rigid summer energy consumption demand and continuous OPEC+ production cuts, the tight supply-demand balance of crude oil has been further consolidated.

Market institutions predict that short-term geopolitical games in the Middle East are unlikely to ease, and oil prices will maintain a strong high-volatility trend, bringing sustained imported inflation pressure to global economies. China’s refined oil price adjustment window will face upward pressure along with rising international oil prices, and the profitability of the energy exploitation, refining and oil-gas service industrial chains will continue to recover.

Meanwhile, high oil prices will further accelerate global energy transformation, driving expanding demand for clean energy alternatives such as photovoltaic, energy storage and wind power. Structural market trends in the energy sector will continue, forming a dual development pattern of steady profits for traditional energy enterprises and rapid growth for new energy industries.