International crude oil markets saw a strong upward rally, with London Brent crude futures breaking above $100 per barrel intraday, marking the first time the benchmark has crossed the $100 threshold since late July, with a daily gain exceeding 3.3%. The rally is mainly fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions across the Middle East. Market participants worry that regional crude shipping lanes may be disrupted, bringing risks of temporary global crude supply contraction. New York WTI light crude rose in tandem, settling at $96.05 per barrel, while risk premiums across commodity markets climbed rapidly.

On the supply side, the Middle East accounts for nearly one-third of global crude exports. The Strait of Hormuz serves as a critical shipping artery for global oil trade. Escalation of regional conflicts would directly disrupt worldwide crude supply chains. Energy analysts note OPEC+ keeps its existing production cut deal unchanged without releasing extra output quotas. Crude inventories remain relatively low and limited supply elasticity magnifies price swings triggered by geopolitical incidents.

For demand, global industrial activity gradually picks up, and refined oil consumption in Asia and Europe rebounds steadily. As the northern hemisphere approaches winter, traders price in expectations for heating fuel demand in advance. Institutions warn that persistently high oil prices may reignite global inflation and reshape monetary policy decisions of major central banks. A rebound in energy-driven inflation could delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. Domestically, rising crude costs create cost pressure on chemical manufacturing, logistics and aviation sectors, and will affect domestic refined oil price adjustment cycles. Investors will continue monitoring developments in the Middle East, official statements from OPEC+ and weekly US crude inventory statistics.