On September 23, the OECD released its latest Global Economic Outlook, upgrading its 2026 global economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.9%. The adjustment signals stronger-than-expected resilience in the global economic recovery, setting a moderately positive tone for global financial trends in the fourth quarter. The upward revision is mainly driven by stabilizing global consumption recovery, expanding production capacity in emerging markets, and a phased balance in commodity supply and demand, which have offset downward pressures from previous geopolitical fluctuations and monetary policy tightening.

The report also warns of a moderate pick-up in short-term global inflation, mainly fueled by rising prices of energy and industrial raw materials. Nevertheless, the inflation surge remains controllable, with inflation expected to return to a reasonable range by 2027. Developed economies maintain steady recovery with stable consumption and job markets, while emerging markets including India and Southeast Asia remain the core drivers of global growth, outpacing the world’s average growth rate by a notable margin.

Global monetary policies have turned prudent overall, with major economies slowing aggressive rate hikes to create a favorable financial environment for the real economy. Analysts point out that the upgraded growth forecast confirms the global economy is gradually emerging from a prolonged downturn. However, structural divergence persists, featured by sluggish manufacturing recovery in Europe and the U.S. and lingering debt risks in some economies. Uncertainties remain prevalent, bringing structural opportunities for cross-border trade and overseas investment in the future.