On March 16, the latest U.S. and European economic data were released one after another, showing a mixed trend, which further increased the difficulty of policy adjustment by global central banks and also reflected the fragility of global economic recovery.

In the United States, the revised annualized quarter-on-quarter rate of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 was only 0.7%, significantly lower than the initial value of 1.4%, indicating that economic growth was lower than expected; the core PCE price index in January rose by 3.1% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, and inflationary pressure still exists; at the same time, the JOLTS job openings exceeded expectations, and the demand in the labor market was strong, forming a contradictory pattern of “weak growth and high inflation”.

In the euro zone, industrial output fell by 1.5% month-on-month in January, the lowest level since December 2024. Major economies such as Germany, Italy and Spain all saw declines, reflecting that the European industrial sector is facing great pressure. In addition, the U.S. Treasury Department temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian oil to respond to the Strait of Hormuz crisis. This move may ease the tight energy supply, but it may also further affect the global energy trade pattern. The market expects that the differentiation of economic data will make central bank policies more cautious, and balancing inflation and growth will become the core consideration.