On May 13, 2026, the U.S.-Iran geopolitical deadlock continued to escalate, pushing shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz to their highest level of the year and triggering a sharp surge in international crude oil prices: WTI crude rose 2.78% to $101.8/barrel, Brent crude gained 2.88% to $102.9/barrel, jumping over 5% intraday to a new three-week high.
The deterioration stems from the total collapse of U.S.-Iran talks: the Trump administration formally rejected Iran’s “14-point peace proposal” on May 10, with irreconcilable differences over core issues including uranium enrichment, sanctions relief and regional influence. The U.S. stated it is “in no hurry to resolve the conflict” and considering resuming military strikes on Iran; Iran responded harshly, threatening to raise uranium enrichment levels to 90% (weapons-grade) and block the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz is the global energy “chokepoint”, handling approximately 30% of global crude oil and 40% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, with over 50 oil tankers passing daily and annual trade volume exceeding $1 trillion. Currently, Washington expects the strait to remain closed through late May; the UK has deployed drones, fighter jets and warships for multi-national escort missions, shipping insurers have sharply raised premiums, and some tankers are forced to reroute via Africa’s Cape of Good Hope—increasing transport costs by 20%–30% and extending delivery times by 7–10 days.
Market panic over supply disruptions has spread: global crude oil inventories continue to decline, OPEC+ maintains production cuts, and with the Northern Hemisphere summer demand season approaching, the supply-demand gap is widening. Analysts believe a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure could remove 2–3 million barrels per day from global supply, pushing oil prices above $110/barrel, stoking global inflation, forcing major economies to maintain tight monetary policies and dragging down global economic recovery.
Furthermore, higher oil prices directly boost fiscal revenues for energy exporters (Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE) while imposing imported inflation pressures on importers (China, India, Europe) and widening trade deficits. Markets will closely monitor U.S.-Iran military movements, strait shipping status and OPEC+ policy adjustments; oil prices will remain dominated by geopolitical risks in the near term, with high volatility likely.
