On May 20, 2026, U.S. President Trump publicly stated that the diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran have entered the final stage, the agreement text is nearly finalized, and Pakistan will participate in the final negotiations as a mediator. This news triggered a sharp drop in international oil prices, as market expectations for the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz heated up. The WTI crude oil price plummeted 5.66% to close at $98.26 per barrel, while the Brent crude oil price fell 5.63% to close at $105.02 per barrel, the largest single-day drop in nearly a month. The Strait of Hormuz is a key channel for global oil transportation, handling about 30% of the world’s oil shipments. Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict earlier this year, the strait has been partially blocked, leading to a sharp rise in international oil prices and exacerbating global inflationary pressures. The news of the final stage of negotiations has eased market concerns about oil supply disruptions, leading to a large-scale sell-off of oil futures. However, there are still uncertainties in the negotiations. Israel has publicly opposed the United States making concessions to Iran, and hardliners on both sides of the U.S. and Iran may derail the agreement. Traders are closely watching the progress of the negotiations, and any negative news may trigger a rebound in oil prices. Industry analysts pointed out that the short-term trend of international oil prices will be mainly affected by the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations. If the two sides can reach an agreement and the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal shipping, oil prices may continue to fall; if the negotiations fail, oil prices may soar again. In addition, global oil demand and U.S. crude oil inventory data will also have an important impact on oil price trends. For major economies around the world, the fall in oil prices is conducive to easing inflationary pressures and reducing the burden on enterprises and residents, which is a positive signal for the global economic recovery.