On May 22, 2026, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released the latest crude oil market outlook and issued a warning. The institution pointed out that if the global crude oil supply fails to improve effectively, the global oil market will enter a dangerous tight supply zone in July and August this year. Although multiple positive factors have eased short-term market pressure, including OPEC+’s planned modest production increase and easing geopolitical tensions from US-Iran negotiations, the medium-term supply and demand situation remains severe. The third quarter is the traditional peak season for global crude oil demand, with summer travel and industrial production driving a sharp rise in oil consumption. Meanwhile, global crude oil inventories have continued to decline in the past two months, and the buffer capacity of the market to cope with supply shocks has been significantly weakened. Even with OPEC+’s incremental production, the growth rate of supply is far lower than the seasonal growth of demand, which will directly widen the global crude oil supply and demand gap. The IEA emphasized that tight oil supply will push up international oil prices again, bringing continuous imported inflation pressure to global economies, especially energy-importing countries. Emerging markets will face greater challenges such as currency depreciation and rising import costs. The agency suggested that global energy countries strengthen supply coordination, release strategic reserves appropriately, and accelerate the development of new energy to hedge against the risk of crude oil supply shortages and stabilize the global energy market and macroeconomic operation.